Is there a draught in here?
Yup, it’s getting very drafty! The latest draft of the ‘finance COP’ agreement was released to negotiators at midnight last night (00:00, November 21). This text should contain our national climate plans (nationally determined contributions; NDCs) and climate finance pledges.
Drafts start off huge, with lots of options proposed by different countries. They then get slimmer, more concise and narrowed down to something hopefully everyone can agree on.
What is the sticking point now?
Countries are arguing about who is ‘developed’ and who is ‘developing’. Under the Paris Agreement (2015), only countries classed as developed are legally obliged to contribute to climate finance. China, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are all classified as economically developing but may not necessarily be short of a bob or two. Rich countries want to share the bill for climate finance with those countries. So … the rich are stalling the agreement.
Speaking of draughts
Affluent global north nations are being affected by extreme weather events. New published and peer-reviewed research has found that climate change increases maximum wind speeds in 84% of Atlantic hurricanes. They have been getting stronger by an average of 18mph between 2019 and 2023.
“Every hurricane in 2024 was stronger than it would have been 100 years ago,” said lead author Daniel Gilford, of Climate Central, Inc. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, hurricane damage scales exponentially with increases in wind speed.
This year Hurricane Helene killed more than 200 people and left damage costing some US$250 billion, with wind speeds reaching 140mph. We can expect to see more sad scenes of flattened towns and lives lost.
https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/hurricane-strength-attribution
Africa states its red lines
“African countries wake up every morning to a crime they did not commit,” says Marlene Achoki at Care International, who is close to the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), which represents 54 nations. “Therefore AGN is very, very specific about its red lines.”
Red line 1: They want developing nations to have $1.3 trillion/year of climate finance based on an in-depth assessment of needs.
“We have had numbers flying around (largely from the EU) of $200bn, $300bn. What are those numbers based upon? They are a joke,” adds an exasperated Ms Achoki.
Red line 2: Africa does not want to be saddled with more debt. Grants, technology, IP, studies, personnel … all these help but the continent does not need more debt to the global north, as has happened with previous global north ‘pledges’.
“A lot of African countries are in debt already, from climate loans and other issues.”
Let’s not slip further into the carbon colonialism trap.
OPEC invokes God
The secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Haitham Al Ghais, has echoed the president of Azerbaijan, saying that oil and gas: “Are indeed a gift of God.”
He stated that the focus of COP29 should be to reduce emissions and not about choosing energy sources.
“We need to embrace all energies, leverage all the available technologies, and ensure that the needs of all peoples around the world are taken into account.”
Errrr … well it is carbon-based fuels that are releasing the damaging emissions …
Argentina affirms its Paris Agreement
Argentina’s foreign minister says the country will stay in the Paris Agreement, after negotiators representing the government of Javier Milei were ordered to withdraw last week. Milei has previously described climate change as a “socialist lie”.
Invoking science
A useful collection of graphics on how the climate is changing is presented nicely in this Guardian article, based on a variety of datasets. These graphics (but not the emissions behind them) are a “gift from humanity”.