Week 2, day 2: at the COPa … Copacabana

19 Nov

If I was in Rio, I would be sipping an iced caipirinha and considering a samba with the locals. I had assumed that the G20 leaders would be doing the same, but instead they’ve issued a 22-page statement on climate action and climate finance. This might be extremely helpful in unlocking the COP29 talks that have become mired in minutiae, bickering and rhetoric.

The G20 represents 80% of global emissions, 85% of GDP, 75% of global trade – and 75% of global waste. If they speak, it should mean something … so what does it say?

Well, it has a lot of terse words in politician speech but in short it:

1) Appears to recognise gross climate injustice and the requirement to help: “We underscore the need for increased international collaboration and support, including with a view to scaling up public and private climate finance and investment for developing countries.”

2) Supports the finance goal in principle (NCQG): “We look forward to a successful new collective quantified goal (NCQG) outcome in Baku. We pledge our support to the COP29 presidency and commit to successful negotiations in Baku.”

3) Calls to triple renewable energy capacity and support carbon removals: “We support the implementation of efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally” and “support the implementation with respect to other zero and low-emission technologies, including abatement and removal technologies”.

Mind the gap

UNEP’s adaptation gap report indicates that developing countries will be hit by adaptation costs of $340 billion a year. UN climate chief Simon Stiell highlighted that we had better provide adaptation funds to global south countries because of our globalised supply chains – “no-one can climate-proof their links in global supply chains, every nation in our interconnected global economy pays the price”.

This means food, it means materials, it means critical minerals, among other things.

Another Simon Stiell belter

Stiell has had a day of ranting and raving but has praised the G20 for sending a clear message to COP29 to get a deal done. He also provided some stark warnings, such as:

“Bluffing, brinkmanship and premeditated playbooks are burning up precious time. So let’s cut the theatrics and get down to the real business this week.”

As dead as a doornail?

Analysis by Carbon Brief shows that 2024 will be the first year above the 1.5-degree goal. Five major climate research institutions show their estimates to have breached the 2015 Paris goal of keeping 1.5 alive.

“The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and senior fellow at the Breakthrough Institute.